In September, revenue from the electronics industry fell 8.77% year-on-year, a slight increase from the previous quarter, but it was significantly weaker than in the previous peak season. In September, the excess income of the electronics industry was -1.9%, and the cumulative excess return for the 11 years was -10.6%. In September, the electronics sector saw a fall of 12.9% and a cumulative decline of 29.4% in 11 years. It ranked the 16th in September's relative return in the 23 first-tier industries. We believe the main reasons are: (1) The global demand for electronics in the third quarter is sluggish and the peak season is not a reality. There are downward risks in the earnings forecast of listed companies; (2) After the rebound in valuations in the previous period, the overall decline in A shares will be assessed. The level of value falls again.
Global semiconductor economy continues to decline According to statistics of WSTS, global semiconductor product shipments in August 2011 amounted to US$24.22 billion, which was a decrease of 4.4% from the same period of the previous year, as compared to August 2010 global semiconductor product shipments of US$ 25.32 billion. The year-on-year sales growth rate fell 0.6% compared with the growth rate of -3.8% in July.
According to SEMI's August 2011 North American semiconductor equipment manufacturer's order shipment ratio report, North American semiconductor equipment order shipment ratio (BB value) continues to decline. According to the moving average of three months, the orders of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers in August were 1.18 billion U.S. dollars, and the shipment volume was 1.48 billion U.S. dollars. The order shipping ratio was 0.80.
The amount of orders for the US$1.18 billion in August 2011 decreased by 34.8% year-on-year and 8.8% month-on-month. Shipments of US$1.48 billion fell by 5.1% year-on-year and fell by 3.0% from the previous quarter. Due to the significant decline in orders, the value of BB semiconductor equipment in North America continued to drop to 0.80, and semiconductor manufacturersâ€™ investment dropped sharply, and the industryâ€™s boom was at a low level.
According to SEAJâ€™s data on shipments of semiconductor equipment orders in Japan, in August 2011, orders for semiconductor equipment in Japan were 83.20 billion yen, down 34.7% year-on-year. In August 2011, semiconductor equipment shipments in Japan were 109.96 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 18.9. %, the August BB value was 0.76, which was significantly lower than the July BB value of 0.96.
The recent market sales season is not busy Taiwan's electronic listed companies have announced September sales data. In September, Taiwanâ€™s electronics industryâ€™s overall revenue decreased by 8.77% year-on-year. From the year-on-year growth rate of the industry chain, the upstream -14.96%, the middle -6.21%, and the downstream -8.91%, the chain growth rate, the upstream -1.36%, the middle reaches of 4.41%, the downstream 2.43%.
Specifically, September sales increased by more than 10% year-on-year, including handset manufacturing (42.3%), optical lenses (54.2%), NB and mobile phone components (25.5%), and DRAM manufacturing decreased in more than 10% of the areas (- 53.5%), Display (-48.5%), Solar Energy (-39.5%), IC Manufacturing (-19.5%), IC Design (-19.5%), Notebook (-16.5%), LED, and Optical Component (-15.7%) , IC foundry (-14.3%), digital camera (-13.6%), TFT (-12.6%), passive component (-10.7%).
In the upstream and downstream industries that we have focused on, we observed that except for the TFT industry, they all showed a downward trend. From the historical data, the growth rate of Taiwan's electronic ring in September 2011 was significantly lower than historical levels, especially in the field of solar energy and STN panels.
In September 2011, Taiwanâ€™s electronic PCB manufacturing business grew 4.9% year-on-year, down 2.2% from the July growth rate. Passive components also saw year-on-year growth of -9.2%, which was a 1.5% increase from the July growth rate.
IC manufacturing decreased 19.5% year-on-year, which was a 0.9% drop from the August growth rate. IC packaging and testing fell 5.5% year-on-year, a 0.3% increase from the August growth rate. In the off-season performance of the IC sector, it continued to decline year-on-year. The status of the IC industry as a leading indicator for the electronics industry shows that there is no improvement in downstream demand.
TFT-LCD decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, which was a 2.4% increase from the growth rate in August. STN-LCD faced downward pressure on prices and fell by 2.51% year-on-year, which was 31.5% less than that in August. As the downstream TV demand has not improved, the panel industry continues to decline in economic prosperity, panel prices continue to decline.
Solar energy fell 30.9% year-on-year, down 2.9% from July; LED and light components fell 17.5% year-on-year, down 0.1% from July. The solar market gradually bottomed out, but due to poor European demand, the economy is expected to remain low. LED industry due to poor demand for backlight applications, Europe and the United States lighting demand weakened, dealers active inventory to go, the industry chain is facing downward pressure on prices.
Concerned about the high growth and strategic emerging industries, the electronics industryâ€™s September excess return was -1.9%, and the cumulative excess return for the 11 years was -10.6%. In September, the electronic sector saw a 12.9% decline and a cumulative 29.4% decline in 11 years. Among the 23 first-tier industries in Shenwan, September ranked the 16th in the relative electronic revenue, and the overall performance weakened again.
We believe the main reasons are: (1) The global demand for electronics in the third quarter is sluggish and the peak season is not a reality. There are downward risks in the earnings forecast of listed companies; (2) After the rebound in valuations in the previous period, the overall decline in A shares will be assessed. The level of value falls again.
In 2011, the global economy was affected by the European debt crisis. Demand for electronic products continued to slump and the electronics industry continued to decline. Under weak demand, we believe that low-end and mid-end products will become the mainstay of Christmas consumption, which will give Chinese terminal companies and component companies a good opportunity to increase market share and develop quality customers.
LED field adjustment gradually entered the later period, lighting applications to become popular. In the continued decline in LED prices, LED fluorescent lamps and downlights have become economical. At the same time, with the tilt of the national policy on green lighting, and the upcoming energy-saving lighting subsidies will be conducive to the rise of LED lighting applications. In 2011, due to large-scale investment in 2010, it became the capacity-digesting year. After undergoing economic adjustment, we expect that the 1st quarter of 2012 will be the time window for changes in the industry's economic climate.
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