1. On April 22, 2016, the first CEO Conference of 2016 G20-LED Lighting Summit was successfully held in Linyi, Shanxi. The member company Shanxi Guangyu Lighting hosted the summit.
Second, the LED lighting industry integration into the deep water area
Since the first quarter of 2016, all links of the LED lighting industry chain have stepped out of the previous “price war†market-taking stage, and have entered the stage of “quality†of market share dominated by technology, quality and capital operation, and The horizontal and vertical deep integration stage of the industrial chain represented by mergers and acquisitions.
With the market competition to eliminate backward production capacity, a new round of industrial adjustment represented by technological innovation, quality improvement and resource integration has gradually entered the “deep water zoneâ€.
Member companies unanimously believe that it is extremely urgent to rebuild industrial confidence, open cooperation, and establish close strategic partnerships between member companies.
Third, the development trend of LED industry chain in 2016
1. In 2012-2014, the annual growth rate of China's LED industry output value was 31%. The growth rate of output value in 2015 was greatly slowed down. It is expected that the overall growth rate of the industry will further slow down after short-term support in 2016.
According to statistics from the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GGII), only 24 companies with 24 LED listed companies have a net interest rate of more than 10%; only 13 companies have achieved both scale and profitability, of which only 6 companies have achieved rapid business development. increase.
2. The upstream chip market concentration has further improved, and the top five LED chip companies accounted for 65% of revenue. In Q1 2016, the price of LED chips stabilized, demand increased, and the growth rate of output value accelerated.
In 2016, the international influence of China's LED chip industry has further strengthened, and chip exports have increased. Enterprises with technological and scale advantages are expected to obtain OEM orders from European, American, Japanese and Korean companies.
3. In 2015, the pace of expansion of LED packaging manufacturers accelerated, and mergers and acquisitions became the norm in the industry. The competition in the LED packaging market is heating up. In 2015, the price of the device is almost swaying.
In 2016, Q1, the price of LED packaging devices increased steadily, and the growth rate of output value accelerated. In 2016, flip-chip COB and CSP were packaged into hot spots in the market.
4. In 2015, the output value of China's LED application market was 319.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The penetration rate of LED lighting has increased rapidly, and the proportion of LEDs in traditional lighting manufacturers has exceeded 50%.
In Q1 2016, the demand for LED applications, especially in the lighting market, rebounded and the market picked up. LED filament lamp market is hot, becoming a new market layout point for lighting manufacturers. In the market segment represented by plant lighting, deep ultraviolet, infrared, etc., the growth rate is accelerating, but due to the market biased to the minority, short-term digestion capacity is limited.
5. The integration of the industry chain is further accelerated. GGII statistics show that in 2015, China's LED industry mergers and acquisitions amounted to 42 billion yuan, and 53 mergers and acquisitions. The number of large-scale mergers and acquisitions has increased significantly, with 39 cases of over 100 million mergers and acquisitions, accounting for 73.6%. In 2015, China's LED industry cross-border M&A 6 times, and the amount of M&A was 22.8 billion yuan, showing a further enlargement trend.
As the LED lighting industry gradually matures, the difficulty of corporate financing is gradually increasing, and the attention of the capital market to the LED industry is also rapidly declining. However, industry M&A is still at its peak, and it is expected that there will be a wave of industry mergers and acquisitions in 2016-2017.
6. The international influence of China's LED industry has been further strengthened, and the market space of traditional LED forces such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Europe and the United States has been further reduced. The LED lighting channel pattern has taken initial shape. By 2018, the LED penetration rate will be close to 90%, and the LED industry chain pattern will be basically settled.
Fourth, LED industry development has entered a critical stage
1. Member companies are still cautiously optimistic about the development of LED lighting industry in 2016, and the price of LED terminal lighting products is narrowing, which is close to the cost line. It is expected that in the next 3-5 years, large-scale enterprises in the industry will still have confidence in maintaining an annual revenue growth rate of 20-30%.
2. Member companies agree that to enter the new cycle of industrial development, enterprises must reorient and adjust their strategies to adapt to new changes; enterprises can only further improve efficiency and improve through their own cost control, capital operation, and upstream and downstream deep strategic cooperation. effectiveness.
3. Due to the rapid increase of labor costs, and the product structure and process tend to be mature and stable, the automation of LED lighting production line is imminent.
5. Reasonable quality in line with market demand becomes the main theme of the market
1. Influenced by demographic changes, the trend of “new consumption†is obvious: after 80 and 90, it gradually becomes the main consumer, and new consumption concepts and the use of new technologies will generate new consumption content.
2. The biggest feature of the new consumer group is the willingness to pay a higher price for the personal experience. “Qualityâ€, “health†and “experience†will become consumer keywords. Technological changes will also bring new consumption supply. The application of new technologies represented by smart lighting in consumption in the future is also a major concern.
3. In the long run, the improvement of the total consumption level comes from the improvement of the total income level. Compared with the historical experience of the United States, when the per capita GDP reaches 5,000-10,000 US dollars, all kinds of optional consumer expenditures enter a stage of rapid growth. As per capita GDP approaches 10,000 US dollars, the optional consumption will be in the “golden age†in the next 5 years.
4. Member companies agree that the LED industry still has great development potential in the future. Rebuilding industrial confidence, complementing products and achieving win-win results can promote the steady development of the industry.
Quality is the bottom line that member companies have always adhered to. To insist on quality in the first position, we can truly achieve Chinese brands in the LED era. We must grasp this bottom line well and the market still has great opportunities.
6. Technological innovation represented by CSP and flip-chip is a general trend.
1. The LED technology roadmap has been developed to the CSP stage. This is due to the upgrade and change of the LED package structure to solve the problem of the light-receiving angle, reliability, brightness and mechanism strength faced by the traditional LED package.
2, flip-chip, CSP is becoming two hotspots, these two technologies are not parallel packaging technology, but cross and fusion. Flip-chip represents the mounting method of the chip electrode, and CSP represents the size of the package relative to the chip. At present, the flip-chip technology has a place in the middle and high power, and the CSP is mainly realized by the flip-chip technology. The flip-chip CSP will have certain advantages and scale in the high-power market in the future.
3. Member companies agree that flip-chip CSP will not replace SMD, EMC and other packaging structures in the short term, but flip-chip CSP will become the mainstream in the market.
4. Member companies agree that traditional packaging companies still have certain scale effects and cost advantages in terms of cost control and process manufacturing, especially in the alternative light source market in the small and medium power field. The market potential is still very obvious.
5. Member companies agree that from the current technical level, it is difficult for LED packaging to appear that a certain technology can replace all other technologies. Each technology trend has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on different applications. occasion.
Seven, automated, unmanned factories will become just needed
1. Member companies agree that the biggest pressure on internal cost control of enterprises is how to improve production efficiency and reduce personnel management costs. The per capita output value of the unit will become the main indicator for LED companies to judge their own growth. In the past, the traditional LED lighting assembly line has a high manual use, so “machine substitution†and “factory automation†will be put on the agenda.
In the past few years, due to the unfavorable factors such as rapid changes in LED market prices, immature product structure, and low production capacity of single products, the target of production line transformation mainly focuses on semi-automation, regional automation, small-scale transformation, and more transformation in the future. It will tend to be fully automated, MES and unmanned.
2, the most lack of intelligent manufacturing is talent, many companies have a misunderstanding of intelligent manufacturing, most companies are advancing in the process of exploration, automation and transformation investment is still in its infancy.
The automation of the production line will be divided into two stages, one is mechanization and the other is intelligent. From the perspective of mechanization, it can improve efficiency and save labor costs. Intelligentization is to upgrade one level, and the manufacturing process can be reduced by intelligentization. However, this process cannot rely solely on equipment companies. Only lighting manufacturers actively participate and cooperate. To achieve an optimal solution.
3. Member companies unanimously believe that the three major objectives of automation transformation are: reduce labor costs, and recover the cost of production line transformation in about one and a half years; the production line is fully inspected to ensure product quality; the production line has certain flexibility and is suitable for future products. The change.
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