Recently, the US Department of Energy publicly admitted that the goal of deploying 1 million electric vehicles in the United States by 2015 cannot be achieved. This is the first country in the world's electric car boom driven by major national governments in recent years to clearly recognize that the target is overheated.
In the eyes of some people, the straightforward “confessions†of the US government is a piece of news that is enough to make people shout that “a strong America will not workâ€. In this regard, the first thing people naturally think of is, "Even the United States admits that it will not work. Can our country's electric vehicle goals be achieved?"
The author believes that at the moment when the first wave of global electric vehicle fever in the new century continues to cool down, it is indeed a problem worthy of attention to carefully review the quantitative goals of the future development of electric vehicles in China. However, the United States recognizes the significance of the mirror that the goal of electric vehicles cannot be achieved within three years, and it does not stop there. As one of the main players in the market, how the government should play a scientific role in promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry is a subject worthy of deep reflection and review.
One of the mirrors : There are twists and turns in the development of electric vehicle industrialization, not because the government should participate in the promotion; the development of the electric vehicle industry cannot be separated from the strong support of the government. This judgment is not outdated.
Some people simply attributed that the US government's recognition that the goal of electric vehicles cannot be achieved is that the government should not "reach out" to the market. The author disagrees. In order to accelerate the marketization of certain types of products beneficial to the public interest, the government as one of the main players in the market participates in industrial promotion, which is a normal phenomenon in the history of world economic development. It is no exception under the "highly free economy" system like the United States.
In the 1950s, the US government directly used partial planning methods to support the construction and development of the federal highway system; in the 1980s, it directly supported the construction and development of the US information highway with the Internet as the core platform . The world strategy master Michael Porter also once stated in his famous "National Strategy" that the government supports the construction and development of basic market elements and industry-related elements as an important source of national competitive advantage. Therefore, for the electric vehicle industry, it is obviously not in line with the natural development of the market; and the current ups and downs of the current situation should not be caused by the government ’s direct participation.
Mirror II : Even when dealing with strategic emerging industries like electric vehicles, government participation and promotion must respect objective laws, and the "red line" of the market economy cannot and cannot be crossed.
Others believe that the current government has more conditions, more resources, and more means to meet the needs of promoting strategic emerging industries. Therefore, the "visible hand" can surpass the traditional market economy "red line" And Jian Qigong. However, the practice of electric vehicle development in the United States, Germany and other countries once again proves that if the government ’s "visible hand" reaches beyond the "make up market failure", then it will inevitably lead to damage to the efficiency and benefits of the economy, and will inevitably lead to The goal is difficult to achieve.
In the first two years, the major governments of the world have come forward from the central government to organize the planning of electric cars. The most striking of these plans is the total amount of investment promised by the government, and the second is the government ’s calculation of the number of electric vehicles at a certain point in the future. This is understandable. However, it is not difficult to find out carefully the plans of the governments of various countries. Many governments have gone too far in promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry. For example, using planning means to align business alliances, trying to promote technological breakthroughs; using planning means to solidify business models, trying to break the market ice; using planning means to mobilize resources, trying to accelerate the marketization process, and so on.
However, after a year or two of practice, the governments of major countries quickly discovered that in the process of promoting the development of electric vehicles, the government was "singing a one-man show", so they went further and rushed to "powerless". The reason for this embarrassment is not that the government has insufficient capacity to mobilize resources, but that the government has intervened so deeply in market activities that its strong ability to mobilize resources has become a negative factor that weakens market vitality and hinders efficient resource allocation. force. Blindly raising the government's role in the development of the electric vehicle industry is destined to suffer.
Mirror III : In the process of promoting the development of emerging industries, it is not terrible for the government to misjudge the target and deviate from the process. The terrible thing is that the policy cannot be adjusted and corrected in a timely manner.
Some people think that the strategic emerging industry development goals set by the government have been carefully verified and are major national events. They ca n’t be changed unless they are changed. At least they ca n’t admit that they ca n’t be achieved until the last minute.
Government-defined industries
The development goals reflect indeed the consensus of all parties facing the development of the industry within a certain period of time, and they have a fairly reliable basis. At the same time, it is also an important method of scientific management to use targets to stimulate the inner strength of the industry. However, the goal is only a method, not the industrial development itself. If the industry's supply and demand conditions are not met, the best figures will not help.
The US example is readily available: The US government ’s electric vehicle plan was first proposed by President Obama in the 2008 election campaign and launched in 2009. In 2011, the US Department of Energy published an analysis report of "Deploying 1 Million Electric Vehicles by 2015". It plans to promote the development of electric vehicles from the purchase of cash back and the allocation of incentives for community electric vehicle infrastructure construction. In 2012, 14,687 pure electric vehicles were sold in the United States, which is only 0.1% of the annual US car sales.
Under such circumstances, the U.S. government responded quickly and publicly stated that the goal could not be achieved. It was a kind of courage and even wisdom. Since it is an emerging industry, there are many uncertain things that need to be determined gradually in the trial and error, and there are many areas that are not recognized that need to be gradually recognized through iteration.
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