Since Q4 in 2009, various TV brand manufacturers have launched thin and energy-saving LED TVs, and actively launched LED TV models, and optimistically estimate that the number of LED TV shipments in 2010 will grow more than 10 times than in 2009, with an opportunity to reach 3,000. The scale of Wantai. In 2010, various TV brand manufacturers have very optimistic expectations for the shipment of LED-backlit LCD TVs. The positive layout from manufacturers will help boost the demand for LEDs. Relatively speaking, the increase in LED supply side is also Very fast.
MOCVD capacity and LED TV supply and demand
According to the LEDinside survey of the LED industry research institute, each LED TV needs to calculate 300-400 LEDs on average. Each MOCVD capacity can supply about 200,000 LED-backlit LCD TVs a year. Therefore, about 30 units of LED TV need to use 150 MOCVD capacity. In 2009, the number of global MOCVD shipments was about 260. In 2010, the number of MOCVDs in the world may reach more than 500, especially the expansion from China.
Although not all of the expanded production capacity can be fully invested in LED TV use, it is also necessary to consider the yield problem, but the substantial expansion of production capacity will also cast a major variable for the supply and demand of the LED industry in the second half of 2010.
LED TV faces price war
According to the panel research institute Witsview, the retail price of LED TVs declined significantly in January 2010. The average retail price of LED TVs fell by -5.7%, which is more obvious than the average LCD TV retail price drop of -1.6%. But despite the decline in retail prices of LED TVs, there is still a 1.5x price gap with traditional LCD TVs. Therefore, LEDinside believes that the retail price of LED TV in 2010 will be a key factor affecting the overall LED TV penetration rate. TV brand manufacturers must significantly reduce the retail price of the terminal, and have the opportunity to reach the sales target of 30 million units.
The price difference between LED-backlit LCD TVs and CCFL-backlit LCD TVs is between 47% and 56%. In addition to the LED TV price war between TV brand manufacturers, the decline is larger than traditional LCD TVs. The reduction in the price of LED chips is also the focus of observation, and the gap between the two will be further reduced in the future.
Therefore, in 2010, in the case of a large expansion of LED manufacturers in various countries, the number of LED TV terminal sales will affect the performance of the LED industry in the second half of 2010, when the LED price will collapse, depending on the sales status of LED-backlit LCD TVs. set.
Chart-1 LCD TV and LCD TV retail price gap
Source: Witsview, LEDinside
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